France HCOB Composite PMI Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:

EUR1.1

Actual:

45.9

Forecast: 44.8

Previous/Revision:

48.1

Period: Dec 2024

Next Release:

Forecast: 46.7

Period: Jan 2025

What Does It Measure?

The France HCOB Composite PMI Final measures the overall business activity in the private sector within France, assessing both the manufacturing and services sectors. This national indicator provides insights into key areas such as production, employment, and economic health, with a score above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction.

Frequency

The report is released monthly and includes both preliminary and final estimates, with the final data often published early in the month following the reporting period.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the France HCOB Composite PMI Final for its timely reflection of economic conditions, influencing expectations for future growth and policy decisions. Better-than-expected results are often bullish for the euro and French equities, whereas weaker data can have bearish implications.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from surveys administered to purchasing managers across various sectors, who provide input on factors like new orders, output, employment, and pricing changes. Using a diffusion index methodology, these inputs are aggregated to calculate the overall PMI reading, serving as a standard within industry analyses.

Description

This report consists of both preliminary and final data releases. The preliminary data, based on early estimates, offers an initial snapshot and tends to cause immediate market reactions due to its timeliness. The final data, however, provides a more accurate depiction with revisions based on additional information, potentially adjusting market sentiment if there are significant changes from the preliminary figures.

Additional Notes

The France HCOB Composite PMI is considered a leading economic indicator, informing expectations about broader economic trends in the euro area. It can be compared to other international PMI reports to gauge regional economic conditions and align or contrast with global economic patterns.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 04, 2024	45.9	44.8	48.1	1.1
Nov 06, 2024	48.1	47.3	48.6	0.8
Oct 03, 2024	48.6	47.4	53.1	1.2
Sep 04, 2024	53.1	52.7	49.1	0.4
Aug 05, 2024	49.1	49.5	48.8	-0.4
Jul 03, 2024	48.8	48.2	48.9	0.6
Jun 05, 2024	48.9	49.1	50.5	-0.2
May 06, 2024	50.5	49.9	48.3	0.6
Apr 04, 2024	48.3	47.7	48.1	0.6
Mar 05, 2024	48.1	47.7	44.6	0.4
Feb 05, 2024	44.6	44.2	44.8	0.4
Jan 04, 2024	44.8	43.7	44.6	1.1
Dec 05, 2023	44.6	44.5	44.6	0.1
Nov 06, 2023	44.6	45.3	44.1	-0.7
Oct 04, 2023	44.1	43.5	46	0.6
Sep 05, 2023	46	46.6	46.6	-0.6
Aug 03, 2023	46.6	46.6	47.2
Jul 05, 2023	47.2	47.3	51.2	-0.1
Jun 05, 2023	51.2	51.4	52.4	-0.2
May 04, 2023	52.4	53.8	52.7	-1.4